New Technology Pathways
Going beyond renewable power and electric vehicles, Atoma Research brings transparency to the next generation of technologies currently being explored to limit global warming. We assess their cost and the societal and governance factors that will determine success or failure.
Today’s efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions need to be supplemented by additional efforts to limit earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees.
Accelerating the climate solutions of tomorrow
Global Warming
Net Zero 
Net Negative
Direct Cooling 
Net Zero
Technologies to reduce or eliminate carbon emissions
> CCUS
A key development hurdle for CCUS is the lack of shared CO2 transportation infrastructure to either utilisation or storage sites. Concerns over the longer-term security of storage - particularly given early indicators of geological risk associated with key sites in the Norwegian North Sea - are also acting to limit the upside.
There is however, an opportunity for carbon capture to have a much greater impact. It can be retrofitted to existing plants and utilisation demand is increasing as e-fuels and CO2-based chemicals continue to attract investment. This represents a material commercial and carbon mitigation opportunity.
> Biofuels
Biofuels present a carbon-neutral substitute for fossil fuels, serving sectors such as transportation, power generation, and heating.
Ongoing innovation has facilitated a shift from traditional feedstocks such as starch and crop waste to more efficient and environmentally friendly algal biofuels, which are poised for adoption in the coming years.
Currently, sugarcane-based biofuel production predominates in the US. The leading producer of biofuels is Cosan in Brazil.
> E-fuels
Momentum is gathering behind the development of power-to-fuels, with companies including Neste, Siemens, ENGIE and Porsche actively involved in new projects. The near term demand is weighted to sustainable aviation fuel, but continued innovation and research is driving down costs with potential for broader market reach in the medium term.
> Industrial processes
Steel Hydrogen Direct Reduction (H-DR) is a technology getting immediate traction, with ArcelorMittal, POSCO and others investing in expansion projects.
Most of the announced new H-DR projects are located in Europe, but we are also seeing project sanctions in China, Chile, and Canada.
Green cement efforts are currently focused on CCUS, but companies such as Heidelberg Materials and LaFargeHolcim are spearheading the use of alternative materials like Belterra clay and fly ash to drastically reduce the need for clinker in cement production.
Net Negative
Technologies to extract carbon from the atmosphere or oceans
Globally, there are around 100 DAC projects either running or proposed. Climeworks, Global Thermostat and Carbon Engineering dominate the sector with Climeworks and Global Thermostat using solids, while Carbon engineering uses liquids to capture the CO2 - with implications for their heating requirements. Currently, most captured CO2 is stored. But in the near future will see a rapid increase in DAC used for enhanced oil recovery (led by Oxy), and as a feedstock for the production of e-fuels. DAC has seen significant investment, and total capacity is expected to surge this decade.
> Direct Air Capture
Biochar is an emerging industry. As well as being a carbon sink in and of itself, it increases crop yields, and helps reduce fire risk as much of the feedstock biomass is wood debris collected from forests. The production of biochar from biomass often coincides with renewable energy production as well, via bio-oils, syngas and heat.
Most biochar projects are run by small companies, but Pacific Biochar in the US and Carbo Culture in Finland stand out as industry leaders. Many projects are carbon credit certified which see interest from companies such as Microsoft and Shopify. Future innovation will lead to lower costs and promote the widespread integration of biochar solutions across various industries.
> Biochar
The addition of carbon capture and storage systems to bioenergy production is the most mature net negative technology.
Much of the world’s current capacity sits in the U.S. where there is significant ethanol production (blended into the gasoline pool for transportation). There is significant potential for BECCS, but transportation of CO2 to cost-effective storage sites remains a challenge. Having said that, recently there have been infrastructure advances - especially in CO2 pipelines.
> Bio-energy with CCS
Oceans are a major carbon sink – naturally sequestering ~30% of total annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, as they acidify and increase in temperature, their ability to sequester is put at risk.
Early-stage technologies are being developed to protect the ocean sink, and in some cases amplify it through direct ocean capture. One such technology is electrochemical carbon capture which, when paired with desalination plants, or shipping provides an opportunity to capture carbon. With the right use case for the carbon, this technology could become a cost-effective decarbonisation solution.
> Direct Ocean Capture
Direct Cooling
Technologies to directly cool the planet
Solar radiation management is an umbrella term used to describe a number of distinct technologies/geoengineering solutions that directly manage the radiative forcing from the sun.
Solutions include:
> Solar Radiation Management
Passive daytime radiative cooling
Aerospace contrail management
Mirrors in space
Ground level albedo modification
Cloud thinning
Marine cloud brightening
Stratospheric aerosol injection
Some of these pathways - such as stratospheric aerosol injection - are highly controversial and remain low TRL, currently researched in University labs. Others with less uncertainty of knock-on implications - have gained more traction recently. This includes passive daytime radiative cooling, and aerospace contrail management.
PDRC is considered a supplementary technology, supporting other initiatives in slowing the pace of global warming. Deploying specialized coatings on land e.g. roads and pavements, and structures helps these structures reflect the majority of radiation from the sun back into space. This helps to keep these structures cool, reducing air conditioning needs, and helping to reduce the heat island effect.
Since the application is terrestrial and can be temporary, there is limited concern about unintended consequences - an important impediment to some solar radiation management techniques such as stratospheric aerosol injection which cannot be reversed.
There is excitement around the potential for PDRC with companies such as 3M actively researching and developing films & coatings, and recent large-scale applications, such as road coatings in Phoenix, Arizona appearing to be having the desired effect.
> Passive Daytime Radiative Cooling
Water vapour produced by aircraft engines is classified as cirrus contrails and these contrails trap long wave (infrared) radiation and reflect short wave (UV and visible light) radiation. The formation of cirrus contrails in the upper troposphere occurs due to condensation, because of the temperature gradient between hot gases emitted by jet engines and the cold atmosphere. Condensed water droplets freeze into ice crystals which remain in suspension for multiple hours. These ice crystals behave like mirrors, which effectively trap infrared radiation and warm the planet.
There are two ways to reduce contrails. Aircraft jet engines can be modified with the addition of an exterior attachment that catches water vapour emissions. Aero Engine Craft is currently leading the implementation of an external pressure-based turbomachinery module on standard contrail emitting jet engines. The second method includes flight diversions around ‘ice super saturation zones.’ A collaboration between Google and American Airlines created over 50% reduction in cirrus contrails by implementing AI to avoid ice super saturation zones. Whilst this burned slightly more fuel, trials point to diverted flights saving significant volumes of CO2e.
> Aerospace Contrail Management